Dr Mengyu Li: Quantifying the true cost of international supply chains

Who Dr Mengyu Li

What Motivated by the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, Dr Mengyu Li’s research quantifies the true cost of global demand for services and consumer goods – for example, food and energy. Through advanced computer modelling, her work maps intricate international supply chains, revealing their toll on society and the environment, while suggesting sustainable pathways for the future.

Winner of the 2024 Macquarie University Eureka Prize for Outstanding Early Career Researcher.

What are some of the broader societal impacts of international supply chains for food and energy that people might not be aware of?

International supply chains for food and energy can lead to significant environmental degradation, such as deforestation and greenhouse gas emissions, due to transportation and production. They often exacerbate economic inequalities, with developing countries facing exploitation and dependence on imports, threatening local economies and food security.

Additionally, In the current era of global volatility, achieving energy and food security is increasingly uncertain. Climate change, extreme weather events, pandemics, and geopolitical conflicts have significant impacts on both the supply and demand of energy and food, causing significant disruptions in international fuel and food supply chains.

Can you tell us a bit about the advanced computer modelling you use to quantify the true cost of global demand for services and consumer goods?

My work leverages high-performance computing (HPC) and terabyte-sized databases to navigate the complexity of the world’s international trade network. For example, my research produced the first comprehensive global estimate of the carbon footprint of food miles. In comparison with previous studies that only take into account food-miles emissions resulting directly from food suppliers, my results capture the entire global supply-chain system.

I am able to project my work into the future, for example by running simulations of low-carbon power grids, or novel climate mitigation pathways involving stagnating or contracting economies.

I am able to quantify how future production and consumption is at risk from climate-change-related disasters, and how we can hedge against these risks and make our economies more resilient.

Your work is not just highlighting the issues in global supply chains, but also suggesting more sustainable pathways for the future. Can you share some of your key suggestions?

I modified major existing future scenario modelling approaches for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to enable assessment of a stagnating or even contracting (“de-growing”) economy embracing equitable downscaling of energy and resource flows, with a concomitant reduction of GDP.

Through my new scenarios, I demonstrate that technologically driven climate change mitigation pathways have not been sufficient for rapidly reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and that the rollout of renewable energy and carbon dioxide removal must be complemented by a radical societal restructuring towards sufficiency lifestyles. This approach, often framed under the theme of degrowth, promises significant emissions reductions while enhancing overall well-being.

Has your work revealed anything surprising or unexpected?

One of the unexpected findings is that prioritising economic growth can actually undermine effective climate action; this emphasis may exacerbate environmental challenges instead of addressing them. The potential for degrowth principles to improve well-being while achieving significant emissions reductions suggests that societal shifts toward sufficiency may be both attainable and essential for creating a sustainable future.

What are some of the larger impacts you hope to see from your work in the future?

I hope to see significant policy transformations that prioritise degrowth principles, leading to more sustainable production and consumption patterns and improved well-being. By supporting the update of data underlying the UN’s Sustainable Consumption and Production (SCP) and Global Footprint Tool online platform, I envision fostering global collaboration that addresses the interconnected challenges of climate change, food security, and social equity, resulting in resilient communities and ecosystems worldwide. .

What does winning a Eureka Prize mean to you?

Winning a Eureka Prize provides vital visibility for my work aimed at addressing the exploitation and degradation of our natural environment, ultimately driving more impactful change for a sustainable future.

The Australian Museum Eureka Prizes are the country’s most comprehensive national science awards, honouring excellence across the areas of research & innovation, leadership, science engagement, and school science.